On every team strategic workshop, whether in form of a development trip or online meeting, we remind the teams that, whatever scenario they want to evaluate, they must not forget that in the future human nature has not been changed.
We will feel entirely logical in our choices despite the fact that we always act inconsistently and unpredictably. It is human nature. No circumstances will change that.
Illogic is inevitabile
People treat their lives as a set of problems to solve. We act within the constraints of their reality. And we imagine ways of breaking constraints.
Even a stable system is never linear in its dynamic, largely because human behaviour makes it that way. The importance and usefulness of scenario planning during our workshops are in taking many variables into account. We accustom the participant’s imaginations to navigating a world in which things are driven in sometimes irrational and unexpected ways.
Scenario planning needs to allow plenty of room for the human factor to express itself in complex ways.
Some things will never change, humans will continue falling in love and worrying about their kids, having ambitions, feeling simultaneously hopeful and fearful, dreaming, shoving back when pushed into a corner. At the same time, we can’t predict every decision humans make. Often their choices are logical only for them.
Our lives go on even as we work at “bending the curve” of world change. Leaving us with the question: How do we live? How do we plan for a future that we know will be uncertain and not necessarily led by rational choices?
Taking a deterministic “if this, then that” approach to forecasting is not a solution. Human behaviour is too unpredictable. In our scenario-planning work, we do it by trying on alternative futures. We research how our organizations fare in each scenario, and we distil common elements that look the most promising for future success.
Remember, no single scenario will be a perfect fit. But… the imaginative work of inhabiting various futures will tell us things about operating amid uncertainty. And It will prepare us to take advantage of whatever the future brings.
We as infuture.fashion team blend unconventional and traditional scenario-planning processes to drive our client’s business growth – through new product, business model innovation, business strategy, leadership development and organizational culture change. If that’s something you are interested in, please leave an email. We will reach out to you.